About the Metaculus Prediction Platform

There are many Prediction Markets (or Forecasting Platfomrs), including Predictit, Good Judgment Open, Augur, and 538.

For my stories, I prefer to use Metaculus, and I’ve published over a dozen of my own questions on that site. Here’s an example of what one of those questions looks like (I didn’t write this one):

Notice that this is an embedded link. The percentage highlighted with a green background is “live” and continuously updated. As the predictions change, the aggregated percentage will reflect the new community consensus.

On the resolution date, in this case January 1, 2026, the question will be resolved, and the final score registered.

What makes my Directed Fiction work unique is that each chapter is tied to a specific prediction on the Metaculus platform. So, you can gauge the choices you make in my stories against real, measurable outcomes.

Perhaps more importantly, you can visit the Solutions Page and see all the forecasts laid out from the beginning to the end of the story and get a glimpse of what the future really holds.